The TerraWater Scenario

Published in November 2022, the first version of the TerraWater scenario demonstrates that it is possible for France to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and beyond. It offers an alternative vision to those already presented in the debate by public entities. It shows, in particular, that it is possible to achieve the goal of decarbonizing our energy system without taking technical, societal, and geopolitical gambles. The TerraWater scenario aims to be free from the political and ideological constraints of existing scenarios, enabeling it to define a realistic trajectory for the next 30 years.

Four interlinked outcome requirements

Climate

French electricity will be completely decarbonized by 2035.

Widespread electrification will then enable the decarbonization of all end uses between 2035 and 2050, allowing the return of manufacturing and process industry to France. By diversifying the mix, the TerraWater scenario caps the use of renewable energies in Europe, allowing their faster deployment where they are the only option (countries lacking a nuclear sector or the hydropower potential).

Environment

By relying on dense and dispatchable energy sources – nuclear and hydropower – the TerraWater scenario reduces pressure on natural environments and respects planetary boundaries. The use of pump-storage stations improves water management and contributes to adapting the land to climate change.

Sovereignty

With a design based on the principle of “Self-Sufficient France”, the TerraWater scenario does not rely on electricity imports to achieve the energy transition. On the contrary, the scenario establishes a margin of 10% in generation capacity and energy, allowing France to keep contributing to European energy sovereignty. TerraWater proposes a trajectory that is resource-efficient and isn’t based on technologies that are not available to us.

Solidarity

Access to affordable energy was a crucial factor in liberating communities and advancing individual freedoms throughout the 20th century. It continues to be a global priority, indispensable for realizing the UN Sustainable Development Goals. TerraWater safeguards the robustness of the French energy system in this aspect and positions it as an example.

The TerraWater method

Being realistic to ensure a fast transition

The TerraWater scenario prioritizes proven technologies.

Given the short time frame we are working with and the scale of the challenges we are facing, over-reliance on innovation introduces a high level of uncertainty. Therefore, the Terrawter scenario chooses to prioritise proven technologies. For instance, it favors hydropower storage solutions (representing 98% of global electric storage) over battery technologies and uses rotating machines to preserve the stability of the grid.

Avoid technological biais

The TerraWater scenario refrains from falling into technological dogmatism. We do not represent interests of any industry.

The main criterion in the selection of energy sources is their low-carbon nature. The following criteria considered are environmental footprint and industrial maturity. Finally, we seek to reach the technical optimum of the available sources.

Take action for the long term

The TerraWater scenario is addressed to future generations who will have to live with the consequences of our current policies.

More than mere promises, the scenario provides assurances reflected in the selection of dispatchable or storable energy sources, resource-efficient and proven technologies, and supply chains that are sovereign or destined to become so. It achieves the decarbonization goals for France by 2050 but stabilizes the energy mix over the long term, beyond 2070.

Respect democratic choice

The evolution of behaviors and lifestyles towards increasing energy sufficiency is essential to address the climate crisis.

However, while we welcome individual moderation as a desired societal evolution, the popular and democratic momentum it requires remains too uncertain to serve as a guarantee for all. The preservation of the democratic framework is a crucial criterion. Its destabilization by authoritarian policies is not conceivable, and an energy scenario cannot condition its success on the constraint of individuals.