TerraWater Scenario for Germany
“Augmented Energiewende”: electrifying Germany better and faster. What if nuclear power and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) complemented the Energiewende to decarbonize Germany without deindustrializing it?
Downloadable documents:
Energy Scenario for Germany
TerraWater Scenario for Germany
In May 2025 and May 2026, the Technical University of Berlin (Technische Universität Berlin) invited the TerraWater Institute to present its TerraWater Scenario for Germany at its annual “Atom Day” conference.
The Institute undertook an in-depth assessment of the Energiewende as implemented to date, followed by a modeling of its evolution through 2070 – based on the Federal Government’s plans and realistic assumptions for consumption, generation, and industrial activity, together with a sensitivity analysis.
The finding of this assessment comes down to a single figure: even staying on this trajectory, Germany would still need 300 TWh of low-carbon generation – 20% of the total – to fully exit fossil fuels. These 300 TWh can come from three sources, separately or combined:
- Interconnections;
- A reduction in demand (sufficiency);
- Additional decarbonized generation and storage capacity – nuclear power and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH).
This is why the scenario we have named “Augmented Energiewende” adds nuclear and PSH on top of the policies and investments already decided, grid reinforcement included.
This choice does not come out of nowhere. It rests on the analysis of two realities:
- The German economy’s and population’s low appetite for an imposed reduction in demand – which we prefer to keep as a safety margin in case of the unexpected, rather than making it a structural lever;
- The growing resistance, in Germany as among its neighbors, to the idea of a country heavily dependent on foreign supplies, even European ones.
What the scenario shows
Once nuclear and PSH are integrated, the model yields the following results:
- The optimal mix reached in 2070, then stabilized, corresponds to what the German mix would have been without the Atomausstieg (the nuclear phase-out);
- German industry can be decarbonized without deindustrialization or a drop in demand, thanks to deeper direct electrification – still on a massive scale;
- The country’s decarbonization could be achieved as early as 2055-2060;
- Germany could (and should) once again become a reactor-building nation: an asset for its industrial excellence, its sovereignty, and its leadership;
- In doing so, Germany could once again become a net contributor to European values, prosperity, and goals.
A rigorous methodology
The TerraWater Scenario for Germany is based on a dynamic, hourly-resolution model of the German power system projected from 2025 to 2070. It prioritizes technical feasibility over theoretical cost optimality, tests its robustness across several weather years (2012-2024), breaks down demand by sector, and adjusts generation, demand, and storage hour by hour until annual balance is reached. The technical, industrial, and consumption assumptions were vetted with the input of German experts.
Full report to be published soon.